Such progress has included advancing mesh generation techniques, enhancing the accuracy of topography/bathymetry in storm surge models, and wind-wave coupling, among other advancements ( Bilskie et al.
Since the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, substantial progress has been made in developing more accurate numerical models to predict storm surge, wind waves, and overland coastal flooding. Storm surge and high waves can lead to loss of life while damaging homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure ( Anarde et al. Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water level from high winds and reduced atmospheric pressure during meteorological events such as tropical cyclones and typhoons. The approaches and data reported herein provide a transparent assessment of water level forecasts during Hurricane Michael and highlight potential future improvements for more accurate predictions. However, we note that divergence between the NHC forecast track and the forecast track of the meteorological model supplying the far-field winds represents a potential limitation to operationalizing a blended wind field surge product. In general, we found that including far-field meteorology by blending the TC vortex with a basin-scale NWP product improved water level forecasts. We also examined the effect of adding far-field meteorology in our TC vortex model for use in real-time forecasts. Forecasts of water levels were within 0.5 m of observations, and the timing of peak water levels was within 1 h as early as 48 h before Michael’s eventual landfall.
The authors report errors between simulated and observed water level time series, peak water level, and timing of peak for NHC advisories.
The model was forced with an asymmetrical parametric vortex model based on Michael’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track and strength. During Hurricane Michael, water levels and waves were predicted near–real time using a deterministic, depth-averaged, high-resolution ADCIRC+SWAN model of the northern Gulf of Mexico. In 2018, Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, on 10 October with peak wind speeds near 71.9 m s −1 (161 mph) and storm surge over 4.5 m NAVD88. Storm surge caused by tropical cyclones can cause overland flooding and lead to loss of life while damaging homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure.
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